Here’s my quick take on the NCAA’s decision to provide an additional year of eligibility.
Most importantly, I don’t think it’s nearly as problematic as people will likely tend to think it is. The biggest worry for prospects seems to be the “money”, who gets it and where it comes from. That said, no one mentions attrition as it applies to the current athletes on all current rosters. Guess what? Many players WON’T come back!
That partly depends on the competitiveness of the program and even more on playing time. If a particular team is middle of the road D1, potentially in the tourney or not, do they come back? That depends and it affects everyone differently. A lot of players just won’t choose to do so.
Remember too, that many players continue playing just to receive their scholarship dollars while finishing their education but they too may not get scholarship dollars in this last year. It’s up to the program! So, lots affect who comes and who goes. Don’t forget that many players haven’t had a super-experience at their chosen program either. The best case for them may have been that they got a big piece of their college paid for. That may stop in their extra year.
I watched a ton of players over eleven years of personal experience come and go as their specific experience dictated. Usually, it was because they didn’t play or they weren’t getting paid to despite playing. This will continue.
Best to note your own player’s graduate year and understand who’ll be granted that additional year. That will provide you with an idea and the rosters will only be large if a particular program decides to fund it. Many programs won’t. Some have said that Power-5s have the cash to do so but know there will still only be nine positions on the playing field!
I see this as the NCAA mostly pinning it on the schools to figure it out on their own. Bottom line, maybe the competition is raised for some and maybe you (as you consider programs) ASK how they’re handling the extra year on a visit. They should tell you what their intent is and that will give you an ability to decide on available dollars. But, I doubt they’ll have a great answer for you this early on. That’s because it will uniquely affect each player and it’s going on now.
Yes, big programs with more money will be able to fund the extra scholarship dollars required and those who don’t won’t be able to or will choose not to. But is that really an advantage? Does that really change anything that hasn’t been the status of things previously? Power 5 will still be Power 5 and mid-majors will still be mid-majors.
This is where having experience around collegiate programs helps you choose better and not be as concerned as you may be today. Time teaches this and for most families, it’s the first time, the great unknown. Do more players always positively affect a program? Well, competition is still the greatest rationalizer.
Families have 20/20 vision when they’re in the middle of it! Talking about the effect it will have isn’t the same. I’d suggest that those who may choose Alabama (go and never play then transfer), miss, $$’s from other programs (where they’d have been happier) while those who make sounder decisions get the dollars from mid-majors. The reward for another year will prove good and bad.
There are so many variables and each program will have their own take…until their coach leaves!!! Then you start over with a new take on how things are handled.
Remember too that this phases out after four years so ’20 high school grads will deal with their program choices for a full four years because the extra year begins their first year in college. Afterward, it begins to go away and I personally think getting more athletes will tend to create more problems than programs can manage.
So, relax and be happy for those who got time back. The NCAA contractually offered five years to play four. This was their concern. They fixed that part and avoided a massive legal complication.
Now, watch the transfer portal grow over these years and quite frankly the portal should be more concerning! Nuff said! Hope this makes some sense.